Accuracy
10.28.26Published benchmark
2023-24 validation — full-season holdout
- Accuracy
- 67.5%
- MAE (pts)
- 10.67
This season (live)
2025-26 regular season · 1363 games evaluated
- Accuracy
- 68.4%
- MAE
- 11.76
- Brier
- 0.2087
- Model
- 1.0.0
Live metrics use the latest prediction per game (most recent complete pipeline run) and final box scores.
Calibration
A well-calibrated model's predictions match reality. When we say a team has a 70% chance to win, they should win ~70% of the time. Buckets below 50% are home win probabilities where the away team was favored (mirror of implied away win%).
| Predicted | Games | Avg pred | Actual win% | MAE | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-100% | 71 | 93.5% | 84.5% | 12.65 | -9.0% |
| 80-89% | 163 | 84.5% | 83.4% | 11.62 | -1.1% |
| 70-79% | 178 | 75.1% | 72.5% | 10.66 | -2.6% |
| 60-69% | 185 | 64.9% | 61.6% | 12.4 | -3.3% |
| 50-59% | 198 | 55.2% | 60.6% | 10.91 | +5.4% |
| 40-49% (away favored) | 161 | 45.3% | 47.8% | 12.32 | +2.5% |
| 30-39% (away favored) | 157 | 35.1% | 35.7% | 13.01 | +0.6% |
| 20-29% (away favored) | 122 | 24.9% | 25.4% | 11.02 | +0.5% |
| 10-19% (away favored) | 128 | 13.2% | 23.4% | 11.86 | +10.2% |
Gap = actual win% minus predicted win%. Green = within 5%, red = more than 10% off. Small sample sizes in extreme buckets are normal.
Monthly trend
| Month | Games | Accuracy | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 80 | 63.8% | 13.5 |
| Nov 2025 | 219 | 70.3% | 10.62 |
| Dec 2025 | 197 | 59.9% | 11.96 |
| Jan 2026 | 233 | 63.1% | 11.75 |
| Feb 2026 | 166 | 71.7% | 11.9 |
| Mar 2026 | 239 | 75.7% | 11.36 |
| Apr 2026 | 144 | 72.9% | 12.52 |
| May 2026 | 37 | 70.3% | 13.8 |
| Jun 2026 | 5 | 20.0% | 5.17 |
| Oct 2026 | 43 | 69.8% | 11.67 |
Context
The numbers without the noise — no picks, no lines, just transparent model accuracy.