Playoffs

Plain text ↗ 10.27.26

Series win probabilities and path projections from the same model as the regular season.

Projected playoff bracket

Based on current rankings · updates nightly

Official seeds set when regular season ends. Seeds 7–10 in each conference go through the play-in tournament.

Eastern Conference

Play-in tournament

Game 1 — winner gets 7 seed

7 PHI 76ers

51.8%

8 ORL Magic

48.2%

Game 2 — winner plays loser of Game 1 for 8 seed

9 CHA Hornets

56.3%

10 MIA Heat

43.7%

Projected seeds

7 PHI

51.8%

7 ORL

48.2%

8 CHA

35.4%

8 ORL

24.2%

8 PHI

20.9%

8 MIA

19.5%

Projected first round

1 vs 8

DET Pistons +1.37

83.9%

Likely opponents:

CHA 35.4% chance of being 8 seed

74.7% if matched

ORL 24.2% chance of being 8 seed

89.4% if matched

PHI 20.9% chance of being 8 seed

92.3% if matched

MIA 19.5% chance of being 8 seed

84.6% if matched

2 vs 7

BOS Celtics +1.40

90.8%

Likely opponents:

PHI 51.8% chance of being 7 seed

92.1% if matched

ORL 48.2% chance of being 7 seed

89.3% if matched

Seeded matchups

3 vs 6

NYK Knicks +1.04

85.3%

ATL Hawks +0.29

14.7%

4g 22% 5g 32% 6g 26% 7g 21%

4 vs 5

CLE Cavaliers +0.48

50.8%

TOR Raptors +0.54

49.2%

4g 12% 5g 25% 6g 31% 7g 31%

Western Conference

Play-in tournament

Game 1 — winner gets 7 seed

7 PHX Suns

57.1%

8 POR Blazers

42.9%

Game 2 — winner plays loser of Game 1 for 8 seed

9 LAC Clippers

56.5%

10 GSW Warriors

43.5%

Projected seeds

7 PHX

57.1%

7 POR

42.9%

8 POR

30.0%

8 LAC

29.8%

8 PHX

23.4%

8 GSW

16.9%

Projected first round

1 vs 8

OKC Thunder +1.82

95.3%

Likely opponents:

POR 30.0% chance of being 8 seed

96.2% if matched

LAC 29.8% chance of being 8 seed

93.7% if matched

PHX 23.4% chance of being 8 seed

95.3% if matched

GSW 16.9% chance of being 8 seed

96.6% if matched

2 vs 7

SAS Spurs +1.47

90.9%

Likely opponents:

PHX 57.1% chance of being 7 seed

90.2% if matched

POR 42.9% chance of being 7 seed

91.8% if matched

Seeded matchups

3 vs 6

DEN Nuggets +0.56

60.2%

MIN Timberwolves +0.69

39.8%

4g 13% 5g 26% 6g 31% 7g 31%

4 vs 5

LAL Lakers +0.79

29.2%

HOU Rockets +0.98

70.8%

4g 16% 5g 26% 6g 31% 7g 27%

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