Playoffs

Plain text ↗ 05.29.26

Series win probabilities and path projections from the same model as the regular season.

Projected playoff bracket

Based on current rankings · updates nightly

Official seeds set when regular season ends. Seeds 7–10 in each conference go through the play-in tournament.

Eastern Conference

Play-in tournament

Game 1 — winner gets 7 seed

7 PHI 76ers

50.8%

8 ORL Magic

49.2%

Game 2 — winner plays loser of Game 1 for 8 seed

9 CHA Hornets

55.8%

10 MIA Heat

44.2%

Projected seeds

7 PHI

50.8%

7 ORL

49.2%

8 CHA

36.0%

8 ORL

23.1%

8 MIA

20.7%

8 PHI

20.3%

Projected first round

1 vs 8

DET Pistons +1.16

81.5%

Likely opponents:

CHA 36.0% chance of being 8 seed

71.2% if matched

ORL 23.1% chance of being 8 seed

88.5% if matched

MIA 20.7% chance of being 8 seed

81.1% if matched

PHI 20.3% chance of being 8 seed

92.3% if matched

2 vs 7

BOS Celtics +1.23

90.4%

Likely opponents:

PHI 50.8% chance of being 7 seed

92.2% if matched

ORL 49.2% chance of being 7 seed

88.4% if matched

Seeded matchups

3 vs 6

NYK Knicks +1.61

88.8%

ATL Hawks +0.08

11.2%

4g 25% 5g 33% 6g 24% 7g 18%

4 vs 5

CLE Cavaliers +0.49

52.8%

TOR Raptors +0.45

47.2%

4g 12% 5g 25% 6g 31% 7g 31%

Western Conference

Play-in tournament

Game 1 — winner gets 7 seed

7 PHX Suns

60.0%

8 POR Blazers

40.0%

Game 2 — winner plays loser of Game 1 for 8 seed

9 LAC Clippers

56.4%

10 GSW Warriors

43.6%

Projected seeds

7 PHX

60.0%

7 POR

40.0%

8 POR

30.5%

8 LAC

29.7%

8 PHX

22.3%

8 GSW

17.4%

Projected first round

1 vs 8

OKC Thunder +1.63

95.4%

Likely opponents:

POR 30.5% chance of being 8 seed

96.8% if matched

LAC 29.7% chance of being 8 seed

93.8% if matched

PHX 22.3% chance of being 8 seed

94.6% if matched

GSW 17.4% chance of being 8 seed

96.5% if matched

2 vs 7

SAS Spurs +1.77

92.4%

Likely opponents:

PHX 60.0% chance of being 7 seed

91.0% if matched

POR 40.0% chance of being 7 seed

94.5% if matched

Seeded matchups

3 vs 6

DEN Nuggets +0.81

67.0%

MIN Timberwolves +0.26

33.0%

4g 14% 5g 27% 6g 30% 7g 30%

4 vs 5

LAL Lakers +0.52

28.1%

HOU Rockets +0.76

71.9%

4g 16% 5g 26% 6g 31% 7g 27%

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