Schedule strength

Plain text ↗ 07.28.26

Rank	Team	SOS+	Avg Rating	Avg Win%	Exp Wins	Proj Record	Home/Away	B2B	Stretch	Rest	Travel
1	ATL Hawks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
2	BOS Celtics	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
3	CLE Cavaliers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
4	NOP Pelicans	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
5	CHI Bulls	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
6	DAL Mavericks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
7	DEN Nuggets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
8	GSW Warriors	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
9	HOU Rockets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
10	LAC Clippers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
11	LAL Lakers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
12	MIA Heat	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
13	MIL Bucks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
14	MIN Timberwolves	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
15	BKN Nets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
16	NYK Knicks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
17	ORL Magic	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
18	IND Pacers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
19	PHI 76ers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
20	PHX Suns	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
21	POR Blazers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
22	SAC Kings	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
23	SAS Spurs	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
24	OKC Thunder	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
25	TOR Raptors	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
26	UTA Jazz	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
27	MEM Grizzlies	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
28	WAS Wizards	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
29	DET Pistons	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
30	CHA Hornets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2

2025-26 Season Review

Rank	Team	Played	Act SOS	vs Top 10	vs 11-20	vs 21-30	+/− Expected W
1	LAL Lakers	82	-0.03	9–15	18–11	26–3	+9.9 ↑
2	SAS Spurs	82	-0.02	19–8	18–9	25–3	+7.2 ↑
3	POR Blazers	83	-0.01	8–20	12–14	23–6	+6.9 ↑
4	LAC Clippers	83	-0.04	12–15	10–17	20–9	+5.1 ↑
5	SAC Kings	82	+0.05	6–22	5–25	11–13	+5.0 ↑
6	ATL Hawks	82	+0.01	7–22	18–8	21–6	+4.6 ↑
7	PHX Suns	84	+0.06	12–19	11–15	23–4	+3.3 ↑
8	DET Pistons	82	-0.10	17–6	19–10	24–6	+3.0 ↑
9	NOP Pelicans	82	+0.04	4–24	6–23	16–9	+2.9 ↑
10	PHI 76ers	83	-0.01	9–20	12–13	25–4	+2.5 ↑
11	ORL Magic	84	+0.04	10–20	15–12	21–6	+2.2 ↑
12	CLE Cavaliers	82	-0.05	11–16	17–9	24–5	+2.2 ↑
13	CHA Hornets	84	-0.04	10–14	14–17	21–8	+2.0 ↑
14	BOS Celtics	82	-0.05	12–13	21–8	23–5	+1.4 ↑
15	WAS Wizards	82	+0.05	2–25	3–27	12–13	+0.3
16	TOR Raptors	82	-0.00	4–22	20–8	22–6	-0.2
17	NYK Knicks	82	-0.06	15–11	15–13	23–5	-1.0 ↓
18	DEN Nuggets	82	-0.04	13–12	18–10	23–6	-1.3 ↓
19	MIN Timberwolves	82	-0.04	13–14	13–12	23–7	-1.7 ↓
20	BKN Nets	82	+0.06	5–24	2–25	13–13	-2.5 ↓
21	IND Pacers	82	+0.06	5–25	5–22	9–16	-3.0 ↓
22	MIL Bucks	82	+0.02	9–20	6–21	17–9	-3.0 ↓
23	DAL Mavericks	82	+0.02	8–21	6–21	12–14	-3.4 ↓
24	OKC Thunder	82	-0.02	16–10	24–6	24–2	-3.6 ↓
25	UTA Jazz	82	+0.07	4–25	6–22	12–13	-3.8 ↓
26	MIA Heat	83	+0.01	10–20	13–13	20–7	-4.9 ↓
27	CHI Bulls	82	+0.03	6–22	15–13	10–16	-5.2 ↓
28	HOU Rockets	82	-0.06	10–14	19–9	23–7	-5.6 ↓
29	GSW Warriors	84	+0.04	9–20	10–18	19–8	-6.2 ↓
30	MEM Grizzlies	82	+0.04	2–26	8–20	15–11	-10.7 ↓

+/− Expected W = actual wins minus model-projected wins at game time. Positive means the team outperformed the model's expectations.

What is SOS+?

Traditional schedule strength uses opponent win%. A team with a .520 opponent win% sounds tough — but if those opponents got hot at the right time against weak competition, the number misleads.

SOS+ uses our model ratings instead — actual team strength right now, not just win/loss record. A .520 opponent win% team ranked #14 in SOS+ is much easier to face than a .490 team ranked #3.

The Avg Win% column sits next to Wtd SOS so you can see the gap directly. Look for teams where the two rankings diverge — those are the hidden-hard or deceptively-easy schedules.

Full methodology ↗

Hardest remaining

1 ATL

—

2 BOS

—

3 CLE

—

4 NOP

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5 CHI

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Easiest remaining

30 CHA

—

29 DET

—

28 WAS

—

27 MEM

—

26 UTA

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Unlock full SOS+

↗ Projected record range

↗ Home / away split

↗ Back-to-back count

↗ Hardest upcoming stretch

Key

Wtd SOS What is this? ↗

Weighted remaining schedule strength using opponent ratings and context (home/away, rest).

Avg Rating What is this? ↗

Mean combined rating of teams left on the schedule — the model's view of opponent strength.

Avg Win% What is this? ↗

Average opponent win rate in finished games this season — useful context versus rating-based SOS.

Exp Wins What is this? ↗

Expected wins over the rest of the regular season from the current model run.

Proj Record Member

Projected final season record (current record + expected remaining wins) and estimated final standing rank.

Row colors

Hardest schedules (ranks 1–8)

Easiest schedules (ranks 23–30)

Column groups

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