Schedule strength

Plain text ↗ 10.28.26

Rank	Team	SOS+	Avg Rating	Avg Win%	Exp Wins	Proj Record	Home/Away	B2B	Stretch	Rest	Travel
1	ATL Hawks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
2	BOS Celtics	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
3	CLE Cavaliers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
4	NOP Pelicans	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
5	CHI Bulls	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
6	DAL Mavericks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
7	DEN Nuggets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
8	GSW Warriors	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
9	HOU Rockets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
10	LAC Clippers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
11	LAL Lakers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
12	MIA Heat	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
13	MIL Bucks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
14	MIN Timberwolves	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
15	BKN Nets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
16	NYK Knicks	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
17	ORL Magic	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
18	IND Pacers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
19	PHI 76ers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
20	PHX Suns	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
21	POR Blazers	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
22	SAC Kings	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
23	SAS Spurs	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
24	OKC Thunder	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
25	TOR Raptors	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
26	UTA Jazz	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
27	MEM Grizzlies	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
28	WAS Wizards	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
29	DET Pistons	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2
30	CHA Hornets	—	—	—	—	19–57 to 23–53	21 / 19	8	Apr 14	V2	V2

2025-26 Season Review

Rank	Team	Played	Act SOS	vs Top 10	vs 11-20	vs 21-30	+/− Expected W
1	LAL Lakers	85	-0.05	11–14	18–12	27–3	+12.9 ↑
2	POR Blazers	85	-0.03	9–21	12–13	24–6	+8.9 ↑
3	SAS Spurs	85	+0.02	19–11	18–8	26–3	+8.2 ↑
4	ATL Hawks	86	+0.02	7–22	20–10	21–6	+6.6 ↑
5	LAC Clippers	86	-0.01	12–19	10–15	21–9	+6.1 ↑
6	DET Pistons	85	-0.09	17–6	22–10	24–6	+6.0 ↑
7	PHI 76ers	87	+0.01	10–20	13–14	26–4	+5.5 ↑
8	SAC Kings	85	+0.08	7–23	4–26	11–14	+5.0 ↑
9	CHA Hornets	88	-0.09	11–15	14–17	23–8	+5.0 ↑
10	PHX Suns	87	+0.10	13–20	11–16	23–4	+4.3 ↑
11	CLE Cavaliers	85	-0.07	10–16	19–10	25–5	+4.2 ↑
12	BOS Celtics	85	-0.05	11–15	23–7	24–5	+3.4 ↑
13	ORL Magic	87	+0.05	11–18	15–16	21–6	+3.2 ↑
14	NOP Pelicans	85	+0.03	4–27	6–21	16–11	+2.9 ↑
15	WAS Wizards	86	+0.02	2–24	3–30	14–13	+2.3 ↑
16	TOR Raptors	85	-0.05	2–23	22–8	24–6	+1.8 ↑
17	MIN Timberwolves	86	-0.03	13–13	16–14	23–7	+1.3 ↑
18	OKC Thunder	86	+0.01	19–11	25–5	24–2	+0.4
19	DEN Nuggets	85	+0.00	15–13	16–11	24–6	-0.3
20	IND Pacers	86	-0.01	3–25	7–22	11–18	-1.0 ↓
21	NYK Knicks	85	-0.04	14–11	16–16	23–5	-1.0 ↓
22	DAL Mavericks	86	+0.05	8–25	7–19	13–14	-1.4 ↓
23	HOU Rockets	86	-0.04	11–15	21–8	24–7	-1.6 ↓
24	MIL Bucks	86	-0.04	6–21	9–21	18–11	-2.0 ↓
25	BKN Nets	85	+0.05	5–23	2–28	13–14	-2.5 ↓
26	UTA Jazz	86	+0.07	5–27	5–21	13–15	-2.8 ↓
27	CHI Bulls	86	+0.01	6–22	15–15	11–17	-4.2 ↓
28	MIA Heat	87	+0.03	7–22	16–14	20–8	-4.9 ↓
29	GSW Warriors	88	+0.05	9–24	11–16	19–9	-5.2 ↓
30	MEM Grizzlies	86	-0.02	4–26	7–20	18–11	-6.7 ↓

+/− Expected W = actual wins minus model-projected wins at game time. Positive means the team outperformed the model's expectations.

What is SOS+?

Traditional schedule strength uses opponent win%. A team with a .520 opponent win% sounds tough — but if those opponents got hot at the right time against weak competition, the number misleads.

SOS+ uses our model ratings instead — actual team strength right now, not just win/loss record. A .520 opponent win% team ranked #14 in SOS+ is much easier to face than a .490 team ranked #3.

The Avg Win% column sits next to Wtd SOS so you can see the gap directly. Look for teams where the two rankings diverge — those are the hidden-hard or deceptively-easy schedules.

Full methodology ↗

Hardest remaining

1 ATL

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2 BOS

—

3 CLE

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4 NOP

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5 CHI

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Easiest remaining

30 CHA

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29 DET

—

28 WAS

—

27 MEM

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26 UTA

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Unlock full SOS+

↗ Projected record range

↗ Home / away split

↗ Back-to-back count

↗ Hardest upcoming stretch

Key

Wtd SOS What is this? ↗

Weighted remaining schedule strength using opponent ratings and context (home/away, rest).

Avg Rating What is this? ↗

Mean combined rating of teams left on the schedule — the model's view of opponent strength.

Avg Win% What is this? ↗

Average opponent win rate in finished games this season — useful context versus rating-based SOS.

Exp Wins What is this? ↗

Expected wins over the rest of the regular season from the current model run.

Proj Record Member

Projected final season record (current record + expected remaining wins) and estimated final standing rank.

Row colors

Hardest schedules (ranks 1–8)

Easiest schedules (ranks 23–30)

Column groups

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